Dear Marc Stein...

I read Stein's article in this weekend's dime in which he handed out awards for the first trimester of the current season.

For the most part his arguments are fairly reasonable, but I had a few qualms with his Western Conference MVP selection (I bet you can't guess where this is going). Marc donned this distinguished honor to none other than Chauncy Billups. Let that sink in. Chauncy. Billups. Granted, he's been great in Denver, but... really?

So, being the good fan that I am, I wrote Marc a very nice letter of dissent. But since he's probably not going to respond to me (so far, no ESPN columnist has), I thought I would share my thoughts before they melt into the ether. Enjoy:

Dear Marc Stein,

Chauncy Billups? Really?

Ok so Billups, who is a very good point guard no doubt, transitions from a team with an identity crisis to an under-achieving team that's 1- 3. Under Billups, the 1-3 teams improves to 17-7 (which means they're 16-4 during his tenure). While that record is indeed Impressive, I think there's a bit of fallacy to your logic that the addition of Billups is the sole reason for the under-achievers' newfound success (and therefore deserving of the title "Western Conference MVP for the first trimester). I actually believe that their winning has more to do with the player who is no longer with them rather than his replacement.

Allow me to elaborate. With the exception of a few seasons, Allen Iverson has been one of the least efficient "stars" in a league that typically over values points. So Denver, under the impression that Iverson is a star/franchise player, adds him to their roster only to find out that two players who are very good at creating shots for themselves (but not their teammates) does not make for a championship bound team. It'll get you to the playoffs, but that's about it.

So after Denver traded an inefficient play-maker for an efficient one, how can we be so shocked that they are doing so much better in their current configuration? Billups is a player who is above average in efficiency and wins produced whereas Iverson is not (see Dave Berri for more). If you replace incompetence with competence on any sports team, a change for the better is likely. Sure, the 16-4 record with Billups at the helm is pretty impressive, but he certainly did not accomplish that feat on his own.

In terms of Tim Duncan... well, I'm a little dumbfounded by your logic:

Duncan merely hoisted the Spurs to a 2-5 start and prevented the rest of the West's contenders from gaining some real distance when they had the chance.

Right. So without any help from Tony and Manu, good old Timmy kept the Spurs alive by scraping 2 wins together. There's your MVP, folks. Two Win Timmy. Even Garnett managed better than that when he was surrounded by trash in Minny.

So who should be the first Trimester's MVP? Why, Chris Paul of course.

Consider this: Though the team's roster is mostly the same from last year's season, the production from the team's role players has decreased significantly. Paul has had to pick up the slack for Peja and Tyson, both of whom are under-performing given last year's statistics, not to mention the team really has no 2 guard worth starting. Also, due to Mike Jame's complete incompetence at all things basketball, Paul has been forced (though he would never use that word) to play an obscene amount of minutes just to keep the Hornets in contention. And he's done a hell of a job as the Hornet's current record is 15-7 which is good for the second lowest loss total in the West (behind Kobe and company).

But let's get a little more specific and bust out some numbers. For starters, Chris began the season by breaking the big O's record for most consecutive games with 20-10 (7). Since then, he's added 6 more 20-10 performances along with a night 15-15 while going perfect from the field and the stripe. Need more proof? Check out his season per game averages:

PTS: 19.7
REB: 5.4
AST: 11.9
STL: 2.8
TS%: 62.0
AST%: 57.4
STL%: 4.1
PER: 30.56

And here are Billups' numbers:

PTS: 17.7
REB: 2.5
AST: 6.9
STL: 1.4
TS%: 59.0
AST%: 32.7
STL%: 2.0
PER: 21.20

Do the math, Mark. It's painfully obvious that Chris has meant more to the success of his franchise than any other player in the Western Conference and is a much more deserving candidate than a competent point who's now playing for a team that hasn't had one for at least 2 solid seasons.

Thank you for your time.

My brilliant research was made possible by the geniuses at Basketball Reference in case anyone wants to pursue their own course of debunking ESPN analysts.

Peace.

Lakers-Celtics Rivalry: The BMac Take

I am not alone in this world. A guy named Brian McCormick shares my frustration (albeit somewhat indirectly) over the state of a professional sport that caters to its stars' every whinny-whim (Kobe for MVP) and over-hypes big market teams. He recently posted an entry to his blog that voiced these frustrations along with other ones concerning the "rivalry" between the Lakers and Celtics. One piece rang so true to me (and Henry Abbot, as it turns out) that I had to include it here:

But, I find it difficult too root for the Lakers to win. It seems wrong that Kobe Bryant can epitomize everything wrong with the NBA last summer, belittling his teammates, demanding a trade, calling out his GM, etc and now he is the MVP and on top of the world. I have a hard time rooting for this to happen.

On the other hand, I also hate when players like Sam Cassell are able to get their team to buy out their contract mid-season so they can sign a new contract to play for a championship contender.

Hells yeah. That first paragraph is ostensibly what I've been screaming since the first day of MVP talks. You can't be an MVP (no matter what the numbers) if you actions off the court are detrimental to both your team's confidence and well-being. That would be the opposite of value.

He goes on to say that the league has adopted certain rules in the past twenty years that are now indirectly preventing rivalries. I don't quite agree with him in this regard, as I feel it has less to do with NBA rules and more to do with the average player's allegiance to money over team (with rare exception). Regardless, for the most part, Mr. McCormick's words on spot-on. I shall now buy him a beer.

***

As an addendum to the above introduction, I've just found out that Mr. McCormick happens to be an ex-coach and writer, having authored a book called Crossover: the Model of Youth Basketball Development.

The More You Know [wink].

Five for the Road

With tonight's 106 to 77 win over Miami, the Hornet's not only closed out 5-1 road trip, but it also gave New Orleans 52 wins: good for the second highest in franchise history. By the way, the loss that spoiled a perfect road trip came at the hands of a vengeful Boston team. That whole "statement game" thing had a few repercussions. Who knew.

The Heat game wasn't all that interesting. The Hornets were head-to-head with a bunch of scrubs and never relinquished the lead. Tyson finished a perfect 10 for 10 from the field and pulled down 10 boards. David, Chris, and Bonzi added good (but not spectacular) performances. Actually, it was JuJu who stole the show at the end with 2 fantastic alley-oops. He finished with 11 points, 9 rebounds, 3 steals. Best part of the game? Toward the end of the fourth quarter, Chris (sitting on the bench) threw his shoes over his head and into the lap of a lucky Miami fan sitting in the third or fourth row. Had to be the highlight of that guy's season. After that, we got the funniest (and perhaps most informed) comment of the evening from our TV announcers as Gil started complimenting Chris' no-look passing skills.

Side note: if you want to experience a conniption first hand, give this a try. Next time anyone talks to my brother, Andrew, mention how informed and talented the Hornets' TV commentators are. Be sure to mention what a big contributor Melvin Ely has been to the team's successes this year. Oh, and bring a dicta phone if you have one.

Speaking of passing skills, a big congrats to Chris Paul who, tonight, became the third fastest player to reach 2000 assists. He ranks behind Kevin Johnson and the Big O. That's pretty good company to say the least (although I would have sworn Stockton would have pulled it off before Johnson).

***

It also comes in purple! Who loves the Honeybees... you do!

Great news! The same Cafe Press store that brought you the CP34MVP shirt now features a I Heart Honeybees shirt... and in 2 different colors! Get on board now so you don't look silly in front of all of your friends. And I know because I have friends. I swear.

***

Let's have a little MVP discussion. Everyone else who writes anything about basketball is chiming in, so I figure, why not? Hell, even the McPaper has chimed in with an article that breaks down the competition with a strange formula that ranks the top contenders. I would tear into it more, but it named Chris Paul as the MVP, so... yeah.

Actually, the main point of this discussion is a reaction to an
article on ESPN's True Hoop about how KG is getting snubbed in all the MVP talks. For those of you who don't know, Garnett is averaging just shy of a 20-10 season with one a quarter blocks and one and a half steals to boot. By comparison, CP3 is averaging 21-11.5 with just shy of 3 steals.

The article's main focus is the defensive prowess of Garnett, something that is difficult to capture with the poor set of defensive stats analysts are forced to work with. In fact, this is one my biggest complaints about the game of basketball, since it hinders one's ability to discuss the overall impact of a player or team. After all, defense is half the game. And so, we the fans of basketball are left with rebounds, blocks, and steals as incomplete--albeit poor-- indicators of an overall defensive performance.

Part of the reason for this deficiency is that, unlike baseball, it can be hard to isolate quantifiable actions by specific players at specific moments. Defense is a fluid act that is orchestrated by multiple players. When a team rotates well in a zone defense and forces a poor outside shot, who gets the credit? Better yet, what if someone doesn't rotate and a jump shooter is left to knock down an open three? Does someone on the defense accrue a stat for that misstep? The league doesn't seem to have an answer for these questions, so it sticks with things it can "count". But even here the league overlooks some stats (jump balls) and miscalculates others (I , for one, have always thought that steals should be calculated like sacks so that the stat can be split if one player causes the steal and another gains possession of the ball). So, there you go. It's an imperfect system, so we do the best we can with what we got.

So, back to the article. I've scoured sports websites galore and this is the first piece of writing to offer compelling evidence as to KG's effect on his opponents... which, in turn, makes a pretty good case for him to named MVP. According to Celtic's owner Wyc Grousbeck:

Players that KG is guarding are shooting 13.1% below the league average at their position. So he's guarding power forwards, and they're shooting 52% league-wide, or whatever it is. Guys that he's guarding are shooting 39% all year. That's just KG, one on one, against his man, when he's on the court.

LeBron's guys are shooting 2% below the league average for their position. Kobe's are 3% below. Chris Paul's are 4% below. And KG is keeping people 13% below. In other words, he's snuffing them out.

Good points, but not complete ones. Despite that rant a paragraphs ago, the race for MVP goes beyond a player's defensive abilities (remember: defense = half a player's performance). Now then, I think LeBron as a candidate is kind of a moot point. I'm not sure that I could never get behind any MVP candidate on a team with a record as poor as Cleveland's. Ok, so 42-33 isn't all that terrible--and LeBron is definitely the reason they've won all 42--but compared to the rest of the league? They'd be the ten seed in the West. 10. Not so good.

That leaves 3 guys. Before I move forward, I feel as though I should share my understanding of the criteria for the award. The MVP should go to the player who is having the most outstanding year. We've determined that this is not LeBron. Is it Kobe? No. You don't whine and complain for half a season to get traded and then get an MVP for it, I don't care what your statistics are. His moaning was a huge distraction to the team and a sizeable portion of the league. Furthermore, talks of him as a candidate didn't even really start until later in the season when they became relevant by adding Gasol and subtracting no one. Granted, he's part of the MVP talks every year, but his push came much later... after everyone conveniently forgot about all of the ruckus he caused in the previous months. And for those of you that think he should get it because the league owes it him after passing him over in the past four years, well then you need to get a clue. This isn't the Oscars... with apologies to Sean Penn.

That leaves us with Paul and Garnett as the best choices. Both are having outstanding statistical years and have helped lead teams that were irrelevant less than a year ago to the top of their respective conferences. So who gets my vote? Don't be silly. I would obviously vote for CP. But why? Am I just an irrationally biased fan in love with my hometown hornet (hey, that's the name of the blog!). No. I have my reasons. And no, it's not because his numbers are down (which they are). If anyone throws that argument at you, you should slap their mother and steal their kit kat bar because KG's playing 6 less minutes per game this season than he did last year, which puts his per minute averages at roughly the same spot.

My reason? I am just not convinced that KG has had a more of an overall impact on his team as Chris Paul has. The article doesn't agree, as it is quite insistent that KG is the sole reason Boston has become so hot. Really? Am I really expected to believe that adding Ray Allen to the squad doesn't count for anything? Or that Pierce's return from an injury riddled season (he only played 47 games) played no part in it? Give me a break. The only added piece for the Hornets is a healthy Peja. Never mind the fact that the Hornets played the first half of the season in front of an empty arena leading to virtually no home court advantages. On top of all of that, if Chris finishes on his present pace, he'll be the first player to lead the league in assists and steals in the same season since Stockton did it in the early 90s. Add that to increased percentages across the board and an over 20 point scoring average and... well, what else do you need? The KG line about opponent's shooting percentage is pretty impressive--and I certainly wouldn't be upset if he did win--but averaging almost 3 steals a game shows some pretty aggressive defensive skills. Plus the article shows that Paul does cause a drop in shooting percentage. Even if it's a fraction of KG's, it still shows him to be above average in this stat. And when we flip to offense, every coach in the league is complaining about not having an answer for Paul (except maybe Nellie). At the end of the day I think you'd be hard pressed to rank Garnett's overall contribution higher than Paul's.

***

One final thought before I leave for the tarmac to welcome home the Hornets. I found a funny article from the National Post describing Paul's prowess at the point.

The main comparison is to Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas, widely considered the greatest little man ever. But Isiah was a shooter first. Paul is what would happen if Isiah and John Stockton had a kid.

True, perhaps... but what would CP look like if that occurred?... hmmmm... gross.

Oh, and a special shout to my friend, Kevin. His beloved Milwaukee Bucks came back to win tonight on the road in Washington (the night of Agent 0's return no less). Thus, the Bucks have remarkably kept their playoff hopes alive despite a 26-48 record. Amazing.

And the Lord said to Abraham, "Let them rule the Power Rankings"

Golden State 116 | New Orleans 103

So that whole tagline about a "devoted fan" is probably coming into question given the fact that I've taken quite a sabbatical from writing. But never ye fear my beloved [4] readers, I have returned and am glad to be posting once again. For those of you who were concerned for my well-being in my absence, you may rest assured knowing that the combination of Mardi Gras and women have been the poison that has kept me from writing (but not rooting) for my team.

Quick shoutout to Mike, whose Giants have inexplicably stunned the Pats for a victory in the Superbowl. Not that I didn't believe in their abilities (I gave them a 25% chance the day before), but honestly, did anyone really see this coming? Nope, didn't think so. Much congratulations to you, Michael. Your years of frustration have paid off... here's to relieving the NFL woes of the Crescent City in 2008. Now, on to basketball.

For those of you who have been paying attention, you've probably heard that the Hornets are on quite a run right now. A 9 game winning streak put the Hornets on top of all 3 power polls ( Stein, Hollinger, NBA.com) before a 3 game skid bumped them back down to reality. However, the boys are still in the top five and sport the fourth best record in the league presently (33-15, good for a tie with Dallas). The 3 sequential losses were followed by an unbelievable double-OT win in Phoenix (which was dominated by Paul: 42 points, 5 rebounds, 9 assists, 8 steals, 1 turnover). The W puts us at 3-0 against the Suns with the final game to be played on our turf. Yes, it's safe to say that the Hornets have proven that they are no joke and, in a year in which Western Conference surprises are as common as mint in a julep (at least down here), the Hornets continue to dominate headlines and dwarf other impressive feats.

As if the team's record weren't enough, 2 Hornets will be gracing the All-Star team with their presence. Both CP3 and David West were voted onto the squad by the coaches poll (the latter edging out Matrix and Baron "I dipped my face in hair and now I am a basketball god" Davis). Additionally Byron Scott was named head coach for the Western Conference, and Peja and CP3 will be participating in some of the extra contests during the weekend (Peja in the 3 point challenge and Paul in the skills challenge). The timing on all of this could not have been any better as New Orleans will be the stage for this grand event (right in the middle of its post-Mardi-Gras recovery). With the Hornets making such a strong All-Star showing (as well as grabbing headlines along the way), it seems as though this city has awoken from its drunken disappointment over an underwhelming Saints season to find a national title contender hitting the paint hard almost every night. And, it turns out, they're fun to root for.

Take the Golden State game from last Wednesday. Sure we lost, but the point is that amazingly enough we had home court advantage. I've only heard of this phenomenon myself, but I hear all of these bloggers and experts saying that it's pretty useful to fans in the seats for home games. We aren't exactly selling out, but we are drawing over 10,000 a game (probably closer to 12). Does this actually help? Consider this: a lack-luster performance by most of the squad (save CP3: 28 points, 12 assists, 2 steals, 1 turnover) coupled with Golden State shooting the lights out from everywhere (52% from the floor, 48% from beyond the arc, 92% from the stripe) should have resulted in a rout. Instead, the game was back and forth (with a dozen or so lead changes) up until the six minute mark in the fourth quarter. The fans were carrying the team through a slight slump. Did we win? No. Am I thrilled that the city is getting on board with this team? Abso-@#&*%!-lutely.

There are other things to be excited about. Ju-Ju continues to throw down nasty dunks during his scant minutes on the court. Uncle Bowen has been scoring points, including a night in which he had 8. In fact, that particular evening featured an dunk in transition that ended up in the coveted Sportscenter's top 10 plays (Pargo had some kind of faith let Bowen take that shot... or he was partially blinded by Bowen's whiteness and thought he was passing to Hilton Armstrong). Hell, Pargo himself has been quite a story as well. He's been lighting it up from all across the court and has proven to be more than up to the task of bench-igniter in Bobby Jackson's absence.

But through all of this delightful mayhem--in which my world of Hornets fandom has been turned upside-down--one thing sticks out to me more than any of these. On January 28, the Hornets played host to a Carmelo-less Nuggets. The boys proceeded to blow Denver out of the water in the kind of rout that reminds you of a video game. CP3 himself had 23 points, 9 rebounds, 17 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block, while Tyson asserted that he doesn't like being in Camby's shadow (Chandler: 10 points, 16 rebounds, 1 block -- Camby: 3 points, 5 rebounds, 1 block).

However, two moments in the game stand out. In the first half, one Hornets possession results in 4 straight offensive rebounds. After the last of these Tyson kicked the ball out to CP3 beyond the arc. As he did so, the crowd rose in unison and cheered louder than I'd ever heard them. All of sudden the fans in New Orleans got it. We always joke about how no one in this city knows how to root for a basketball team. Well, Denver was the tipping point. Oh yeah, then D-West posted up for an easy bucket. In the second half (with a sizable lead in place), Paul attempts an assist and, after the missed bucket, got the rebound dribbled back toward the arc while drawing the foul. At that moment the crowd rose to cheer, but instead found itself chanting. MVP! MVP! MVP! MVP! MVP! I thought the roof was going to cave in, but I didn't care because I was overwhelmed by a type of joy that I had never experienced as a fan. I felt a true connection to the team at that moment and couldn't help but believe that I was witnessing something special. It was as though Paul was being lifted to the Pantheon of New Orleans Sports icons... with Archie and Pistol Pete waiting to shake his hand. The best part? When asked about the chanting after the game, Paul's response was something like "Yeah, David and Tyson... they could be MVP."

Bring it on... the world. We are ready to take you.

***

(For the convenience of those who care, I've taken the liberty of including the scores from all of the homes games I didn't cover as well as a link to each of the game recaps from espn.com... Enjoy.)

Los Angeles Lakers 80 | New Orleans 109 Loss

New Orleans 114 | Miami 88 Win

New Orleans 123 | Seattle 92 Win

New Orleans 112 | Charlotte 84 Win

New Orleans 106 | Milwaukee 92 Win

New Orleans 96 | Portland 81 Win

New Orleans 111 | Los Angeles Clippers 92 Win

New Orleans 117 | Denver 93 Win