Hometown Hornets

On Hiatus

2009-11-08T19:03:00.000-08:00

We still go to games... honest.

Seems kind of silly to make this announcement now (we've posted 2 things in the last 7 months), but I thought it'd be polite in case of you have been hitting the refresh button or checking your news feed only to be saddened by the lack of new material on this blog.

The reality is that both Curry and I are still cheering loudly in row 2 of section 325 (check out the photo) and contributing our thoughts to other sites in the Hornet's blogosphere, but we are also in the process of applying to graduate programs. Something had to give, and it looks like (for now) it will be this blog. I will continue to recap home games (and throw in the occasional statistical breakdown or rant) for At the Hive and Curry will continue doing field reporting (or something) for the folks down at Hornet's Report.

We may one day resurrect this site, but for now it shall continue to lay dormant as we move on to bigger and better things. Until then, folks, thanks for reading and Geaux Bees!

Head-to-Head: CP3 vs DW8

2009-03-13T07:28:00.000-07:00

Thousands upon thousands of words have been devoted to the CP3/D Will debate, and truthfully, it's likely we won't see the death of this subject until one of the two hoists the Larry O'Brien trophy. Until that fateful day arrives, we will continue to argue, debate, punch, kick, and bite in this oft polarizing argument.

The reason I'm chiming in today is because J.A. Adande wrote something that caught my attention a few days ago:

I like Paul as much as the next guy... But it's hard to ignore what Williams and the Jazz have done. And you can't forget the way Williams has dominated Paul in their head-to-head matchups.

Hmmm. Interesting. As of today, the Jazz are 41-25 and the Hornets are 41-24. I suppose he could be referencing the Jazz's recent winning streak of 11, but both teams are 8-2 over their last 10, so I'm not sure that really settles anything.

On the other hand, if the Hornets were doing worse (record-wise) than the Jazz, how could you penalize Paul for this? Most of our losses this season have resulted from a thin bench and declining numbers from a few of our starters (none of whom are named Paul, Chris). Is there really an argument for CP being the inferior player if he's stuck on a team with significantly less depth? I'm not sure there is.

It's Adande's second statement that really prompted this post. For most fans of either team, it's generally accepted that Deron outperforms Chris when the Jazz square off against the Hornets, but, despite the fact this has become "common knowledge," I've never actually seen any numbers that back up the argument.

Is there really a sharp drop in Chris' (or Deron's) production? Or are we maybe remembering a handful of only the most recent contests that may have favored Deron? Let's star by looking at these guys career stats. Then, we'll look at some composite stats for the 12 games in which these guys have faced off*:

Career per game totals

	PTS	FGM	FG%	FTM	FT%	REB	AST	STL	TO
PAUL	18.9	6.7	46.6	4.8	84.4	4.7	9.8	2.4	2.6
WILLIAMS	15.9	6.0	46.6	3.0	78.6	2.9	8.5	1.0	2.9

Head to Head per game totals

	PTS	FGM	FG%	FTM	FT%	REB	AST	STL	TO
PAUL	12.5	5.1	40.7	5.0	85.7	3.0	8.7	2.3	2.6
WILLIAMS	16.1	6.4	53.5	2.0	70.6	3.2	8.0	0.8	3.1

Difference in production per game

	PTS	FGM	FG%	FTM	FT%	REB	AST	STL	TO
PAUL	-5.4	-1.6	-5.9	+0.2	+1.2	-1.7	-1.1	-0.1	0
WILLIAMS	+1.1	+0.4	+6.9	-1.0	-8.6	+0.3	-0.5	-0.2	+0.2

A quick look at the tables reveals that almost all of Paul's statistical contributions see a drop (the exception being FT attempted and FT%), while Williams' numbers seem to shift in both directions. What's interesting is that I wouldn't call either stat line from the head-to-heads amazing (which both players are) or terrible (which both players are not). It seems that they both affect the other's numbers pretty significantly, and why not? After all, they're pretty worthy adversaries.

The real story that these numbers tell is that Williams' size (he's got 3 inches and 30 pounds on Paul) and the Jazz's strong interior defense give him an edge over Paul. The former allows Deron to penetrate in the paint much easier, prompting an increase in points and FG% (and likely explaining the drop in AST). Similarly, the size advantage (and the defensively superior Jazz) prevent Paul from effectively running the pick and roll for easy floaters or even kick-outs to the the open man during a double-team. As a result, we see a sharp drop in points and FG% from Paul. Though he is able to make up some of his scoring ground by going to the stripe much more often – another instance of the Jazz's aggression in the paint – it's hard to argue that Paul performs at the same level against this team as he does against the rest of the league.

From these tables, we might assume that Williams is in fact the better player, since beating your opponent head-on seems to be the ultimate competition. But the problem with that assumption is that it ignores one pretty crucial fact: the Jazz are better than the Hornets. Plain and simple. Their starters match up well against the Bees and their bench is something like a gajillion times better than ours. As a result, Paul is forced to carry the load for a team of under-achievers and gets burned because he's matching up against a larger version of himself.

So there you have it: we've seen that Paul is probably the better individual player**, but that's not much consolation to Hornets fans who have watched their team go 2-10*** in the games featuring both point guards. It will be even less of a consolation if we draw them in the playoffs.

In sum, both of these guys are phenomenal basketball players, and they're both a pleasure to watch (yes, I secretly enjoy watching Williams). But they will continue to be locked into this debate until someone is able to assemble a better team around Paul. Let's just hope that team is the Hornets.

--

* Unfortunately, the above tables ignore pace, something that might swing the results more to CP's favor, since he has amassed his per game stats playing a much slower game than Deron's Jazz ever play. While the disparities between career and h2h might have been a little less significant if we accounted for pace, it probably would not be enough to change the story.

** My cohort from At the Hive did a pretty thorough examination of both players and their career numbers. Call it biased if you want, but it's a pretty irrefutable argument that Paul is the better player.

*** Though our record sucks against the Jazz, it's worth noting that both times we've played Utah on the road this year, it was a back-to-back with the Lakers as the previous night's opponent. At the Staples Center. Thanks, David Stern.

--

If you're interested, check out the Basketball-Reference info I used on Paul and on Williams for the tables. You can also download a pdf of the spreadsheet I used to compile the totals and averages.

Welcome Back!

2009-06-26T06:53:00.000-07:00

Hey, remember when I ran a blog about the Hornets? Yeah, those were fun times.

So, all sarcasm aside, I suppose its time we jumped back in to this whole "basketball" thing. Curry and I are extremely sorry about disappearing for the playoffs (but so did the rest of the team, so no big deal right?... too soon?), but we are back and fired up for another off season of (hopefully useful) drafting/trades/acquisitions and the like.

Before we jump into things, I've got a couple of good links for you. If, for some reason, you've been mentally checked out as long as we have, and somehow managed to miss these nuggets, now would be an opportune time to catch up on some great writing:

* Great @TH post on Posey and his contributions.

* Another piece on our good ol' boy Pargo.

* Hey, there was a draft last night... who knew? Ok, we did. But since our draft recap won't be up until Sunday, you'll just have live with @TH's Draft Day Thread for now.

* Even though the draft's over, Ryan down at Hornets247 has a great piece on the value of a draft pick

* A slightly older piece from Ryan about possible trade scenarios and rumors. We'll be sure to pick up where he left off with a little more insight from last night's shenanigans.

--

See you Sunday. Peace.

Weezy Showing Some Love

2009-04-02T07:59:00.000-07:00

Looks like Lil Wayne might be a bit of a Hornets fan after all. Of course, maybe this shouldn't come as such a shock, given his most recent mailbag on ESPN the mag:

Jeff (Birmingham): Wayne -- I know you are a huge Hornets fan and I was wondering about your reaction to the whole saga of Tyson Chandler getting traded and then coming back?

Lil Wayne: Tyson Chandler and Chris Paul are becoming one of the greatest, most-unstoppable dynamic duos in the league and it would have been horrible to split them up. Just atrocious. But I'm glad it happened so they could feel that kick in the gut when they thought he wasn't going to be on the team no more. They needed that push, and now they know what they've got to do, so it's a good thing.

***

Special thanks to the guys down at Hornets 24/7 who had the video in their Lagniappe section which, by the by, is an awesome aggregator of Hornets links from all over the interwebs. There's also a pretty robust News section. Both are definitely worth a look.

CP Playoff Commercial: Sneak Peak

2009-03-19T07:52:00.000-07:00

Video: Chris Paul NBA Playoffs promo

Thanks to Hornets Beat over at NOLA.com for posting and sharing.

The Next Magic Johnson?

2009-03-12T10:50:00.000-07:00

Is Chris Paul as a good (or better) of a point guard as Magic Johnson?

John Hollinger addresses this question one of his latest PER Diems, and he seems to think that the answer is probably "yes." (Though Dave Berri did say it first.) Hollinger admits that both players come from remarkably different eras of play, but this doesn't deter him from making a case for Paul:

Yes, it's easier for a small guard to dominate today's game than it was for John Stockton and Isiah Thomas to dominate in the '80s, and it's true that we don't know whether Paul will have the longevity that the players above enjoyed.

Nonetheless, compare Paul's first four seasons to the first four seasons of any point guard from the postmerger era, and one conclusion becomes evident really fast: The only player who can even plausibly compare to him is Magic Johnson.

This suggestion will obviously set off a bomb of "no ways" and "impossibles" and "don't even bothers" from Laker fans everywhere, but I have yet to find anyone who has written a comprehensive defense of Magic. In fact, most fans think the suggestion is so outrageous that they would rather just dismiss the discussion as opposed to engaging in it.

Fans like J.A. Adande. Mr. Adande not only disagrees with the comparison, but his sole remark on the subject was a terse dismissal of the argument (in his "CP3 vs D Will" article). Here's the mini-rant on why it is "sacrilege" to compare Paul (or anyone probably) to Magic Johnson:

Tell any aspirants to the throne to fill in at center in a Finals game, win five championships and set the career assists record ... maybe after all that we can hold a discussion.

So, apparently CP is out of the running to ever fill Magic's shoes since he probably won't be playing center anytime soon. Never mind the fact that Magic has the height edge by 8 inches (that's right, Magic was a 6'8" point guard) and Paul is probably finished growing. (I suppose it also doesn't matter that Paul, despite his height, is averaging over 5 rebounds a game this season which is only 2 off from Magic's career average.)

But what if we took height out of the argument? Now Paul has to win at least 5 rings and break the assists record. Let's be honest here, the former is not happening. Though I expect Paul will retire with at least 1 ring, he probably won't amass 5. I think it's worth mentioning, though, that Paul doesn't have the same squad of legends playing with him. Who would you rather: Kareem, Worthy, and McAdoo or West, Chandler, and Peja? Neither option is terrible, but the Showtime crew is light years ahead of the Bees.

Ok, so he's too short and he won't win 5 championships. What's left? Oh yeah, the assists record. This is probably the most ridiculous statement of all. While it's no small feat that Magic broke the assists record (his 10,141 edged out the Big O's 9,887), it's preposterous to suggest that Paul has to accomplish the same feat in order to be considered on Magic's level. This is primarily due to the fact that a man named John Stockton came in and beat out Magic's record by 50%. Magic's total: 10,141. Stockton's: 15,806. So now, CP has to amass almost 16K assists just to be in the discussion.

While I agree that putting Paul on the same level as Magic is a bit premature, I don't think it's even remotely sacrilege to make comparisons. Dave Berri said it best:

Chris Paul in 2008-09 compares favorably to Magic Johnson. And that is a point I would emphasize. Chris Paul is developing into one of the all-time great players in NBA history. It’s not a stretch to start thinking of him in terms of players like Magic, MJ, and Bird. Yes, Paul is that good.

"Developing" is the key word in that sentence. Mr. Adande should just be happy that a point guard as exciting as CP (and possibly the most exciting since Magic) is in the league right now. Not to mention that he gets to watch that player's "development" unfold. He should also try watching more than 2 or 3 Hornets' games a season. It might help.

***

Ok, so having the best point guard in the league (and arguably ever) is a small consolation if this team can't bring home a championship. These arguments that circulate through the blogosphere are ostensibly meaningless since we really have no way of be 100% certain about something as subjective as how "good" a player is/was, never mind the fact that some of these comparisons are made between players who were stars in totally different eras.

In the end, these discussions are just a way of biding our time until our respective teams take home a championship. We don't like to admit it, but it's the truth all the same.

J.A. Freakin' Adande

2007-11-14T15:52:00.000-08:00

J.A. Adande, how you have disappointed me. I sent my buddies a hell of a rant in response to Mr. Adande concerning his utterly ridiculous article about the what should be done to save face in Seattle. The short version: Move the New Orleans franchise to OKC. Check it out. Anyway, my buddy, Mike, claimed this was the type of "fodder that should get published on a blog. So, here's my response to J.A.

Really? Vagabond team? Have you lost your mind? How could you possibly insinuate that the Hornets have just as much of a tie to OKC as they do to the Crescent City? This is the beginning fourth season in New Orleans (as opposed to just under 2 in Oklahoma), and the only reason they left in the first place was because of an enormous natural disaster that devastated their hometown. We may not put up the attendance numbers that big market teams like LA produces, but give us a break, we're rebuilding for pete's sake. Besides, even if the Hornets had moved, the Sonics would still be in the same crappy situation they're in now with an awful stadium and faithless owners. These guys have been secretly sabotaging their team for a few years now, in an effort to get out of dodge, and you want a beloved team, displaced by a storm, to pay the price. J.A., I'm disappointed.

First off, Shinn didn't want to sell the Hornets. An offer was made, and Shinn said no, end of discussion. So far this year, the team has over 10 million in corporate sponsorship, 54 of its 57 suites sold for the season, and attendance that has started slow, but has gained considerably since the preseason. Trust me, this city is behind this team...you'll just have to excuse them though, as basketball isn't everyone's number one priority right now. What's more, this city showed its love last year as the home game in New Orleans (one of six) against the Laker's brought in more money than any other game in the history of the franchise. That's the kind of love that says, "I miss you. Please come home."

Ok, so it's unfair to play the K-ville victim card. However, I will stand by this team no matter what. And I am not alone. I just can't believe you'd be so ruthless in your assertion. Should we be punished because this franchise couldn't get ball rolling straight away and then tragedy interrupted the normal flow of things? I'll be the first to admit, the turnouts for games this season have been fairly disappointing. But run out on this town? No way. The reason attendance in Oklahoma was so high is because the state had never seen a professional sports franchise of any kind. You'd be excited, too.

You're right, removing this team would not destroy our city. But you're wrong to think it wouldn't hurt. It's an unfortunate situation in Seattle, but my care-meter drops out significantly since their problem is man-made. Just wait until April when the 7th seed Hornets are ripping the playoff lives out of an unsuspecting 2-seed. That's what it took for the people in Oakland to care... and I don't recall anyone suggesting that the Warriors should move to OKC...

See you later tonight after we destroy the 76ers for the second time in a fortnight.

Highlight of the Season

2009-03-06T07:09:00.000-08:00

Ladies and gentlemen, this is air traffic control. We regret to inform you that while the JET may in fact be on the runway, he has been grounded due to the awesomeness that is Chris Paul. Thank you for your understanding.

Roger that. Over and out.

New Orleans Hornets + Tyson Chandler = Good.

2009-03-03T11:43:00.000-08:00

Who knew?

Some very flattering articles about Tyson's return have been published today.

JA Adande at ESPN.com offers his take.

And John Schuhmann of NBA.com gives an analysis.

Consensus? This 5-0 record over the five games Tyson has played is no coincidence.

Why stop at five? The Mavs come to town on Thursday. Let's keep it going.

Wake Up, Mr. West

2009-03-02T14:50:00.001-08:00

You've just been named Player of the Week.

Congratulations to D-West, who was just named the Western Conference Player of the Week for games played from February 23 to March 1. Over that stretch, West has put up great numbers in four games. Per game, he's averaging 28.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1 steal. Certainly not by coincidence, the Hornets are on a four-game win streak.

Big ups to David and the Hornets. Now, let's keep it rolling in Philly.

New Dirty Coast Hornets Shirt

2009-02-27T09:50:00.001-08:00

Ticktock6 beat me to the punch on this, but I'm posting it anyway.

Despite having three shirts devoted to Saints fandom, Dirty Coast -- a nifty little shirt shop down on Magazine Street -- had yet to produce any shirts for those of us that bleed ~~teal~~ creole blue and purple.

But now that's all changed. Check out the new tee, which is cleverly titled Horn.Net.Fan.

Here's what their site has to say about it:

It used to be when Saints season had ended folks would wonder what to do with all that fan energy? Well now we have a real reason to make some noise.

Word. Now if they'd only return my emails about the "Chef Paul" shirt Curry and I had in mind.

The Tyson Chandler Non-Trade

2009-02-19T13:48:00.000-08:00

Disclaimer: a lot of friends have asked for my take on the Tyson-to-OKC-and-back-again non-trade that has been the NBA's big drama of the week. Not wanting to repeat myself, I cancelled a lunch date (who am I kidding? I got stood up) and wrote this earlier today. I hope my thoughts can help put the whole ordeal in perspective.

Tuesday morning, I heard strong rumors -- and eventually learned -- that the Hornets were planning on shipping Tyson Chandler to the Oklahoma City Thunder (please get a better name) in exchange for Joe Smith, Chris Wilcox, and the draft rights to a kid whose chances of making the NBA seem about as good as my own. My intial thoughts? Let me transcribe a text message I sent to HH founder and my good friend Lee:

No no no. F**k no.

I, like many in the Hornets Blog-o-sphere, believed this team's core to be made up of three individuals: Chris "The Chef" Paul, David West, and the aforementioned Chandler. Seeing the team part with one of those three -- only to return with spare parts in his place -- hurt.

I've admitted that the Hornets' chances of making the NBA Finals (much less winning the championship) are pretty slim this year. But I always thought they'd be able to tweak the roster and make a strong run at a title next season. Or the next. When I got the news of the Tyson trade, all those hopes were gone. The trade with OKC didn't do enough to improve the Hornets this year, and it didn't necessarily put the team in a better position over the next two or three years. All I could do was hope that the move was setting up the team for another trade further down the road. Meanwhile, all sports analysts and their mothers were painting the trade as nothing more than a salary dump that was a great basketball move by the Thunder and an unfortunate one by the Hornets.

As the day went on, I heard whispers that Tyson's injury might be more serious than we thought. That got me thinking. Over the course of his career, he has had a few toe/ankle/foot injuries that have kept him out of the lineup. The only time his toe was a major issue was when it prevented him from playing with Team USA. What if the injury was keeping him off the floor for the rest of the season? What if this most recent diagnosis had discovered that he would never be the same? What if all the waiting and hoping for Tyson to regain his status as a dominant center were in vain? Yes, he put up nearly 12 points and 12 rebounds a game last season. But he's managed just under 9 points and just over 8 rebounds a game this season. A contract paying a player $24.6 million over the next two years? It's worth it for those first stats. Not so much for the latter. Especially if a recurring injury is keeping said player out of the lineup on a regular basis. What if his career is shortened?

Taking these concerns and playing the eternal optimist, I figured the team was making the best out of a bad situation. Sure the Hornets brass would want to keep their young core intact. But they definitely wouldn't want to be saddled with a big contract for a player who might not be able to perform on the court. They did what (they thought) they had to do: get the best value for damaged goods. When the trade went through, I wished Tyson the best, lamented the fact that we'd have no more Crescent | City | Connection, and did my best to look forward to the depth that Wilcox and Smith would provide.

I went to last night's game against the Magic, finally starting to accept that the Hornets were living post-Tyson. I was treated to a big surprise when the Hornets, playing without Tyson or the newly acquired Wilcox and Smith, absolutely dominated the Magic. And dominated them in the post: a stunning 44-18 Hornets edge on points in the paint and a 46-35 margin on rebounds. As soon as I got home from that game, I logged into my email and saw the following subject line: Chandler Re-joins Hornets.

As we now know, Ty failed his physical for the trade, putting some stock in those whispers about his injury being fairly serious. And the result of the failed physical is that the Hornets will keep their core three guys for at least the remainder of this season. Beyond that, who knows? But we know who we've got for the stretch run and the playoffs. And I'm happy with it. That said, I am, without a doubt, concerned about Tyson's longterm health (see: all the above "What ifs").

However, I can't post those hypotheticals without thinking about the flip side. What if Tyson re-joins a team that shows the sort of hustle from last night on a regular basis? What if his numbers improve to last season's levels? This Hornets team defeated Orlando (home of the best center in the league) 117-85... add a 7'1" defensive post presence to the mix, and you have to like it. Maybe Tyson's career doesn't succumb to the injury. After all, he has been playing with it since the Spring of 2007. Those 12 points and 12 rebounds a game? He put those numbers up during the 2007-08 season -- after the original diagnosis of the injury. Who's to say he can't do it again? And if he does do it again, I'd love to have him on my home team. For the forseeable future, he will be. And I can't complain about that.

Psyche!

2009-02-18T21:03:00.000-08:00

Sooo... 24 hours ago, we were all wondering what life post-Tyson would be like. About one hour ago, news broke that Tyson did not pass the physical for the Thunder and that -- due to that -- the trade was rescinded, keeping Ty with the Hornets and leaving Wilcox/Smith in OKC.

I'm a little worried about Tyson's injury (turf toe), which has to have been a major reason the Hornets made this trade in the first place. Seeing a team ship away a big man (capable of putting up a double-double on a nightly basis) for two expiring contracts leaves observers wondering what they don't know. Of course, the move was chalked up as being financially driven (a "salary dump"). But there were other ways for the Hornets to reduce their payroll.

With the trade of Tyson, there seemed to be more. Turns out, there was. The Hornets were trying to protect themselves from being stuck with a $12 million contract for a player who might not return to that nightly double-double form. I welcome Tyson back to the team, and I'm excited to have the Crescent City Connection live on. But I'm anxious that his history of foot injuries might hamper his future. If that's the case, it puts this team at a serious disadvantage.

Obviously, only time will tell if Tyson will be able to get back to the dominant inside force and solid finisher of the past two years. But I don't want to hold my breath for too long. He's been on the sideline for a full month. I can only hope that time has done something to help his injuries.

Either way, once again, welcome back, Tyson. On a personal note, it's great to have the core of CP-DWest-Ty together again. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that Tyson can still show us the type of play that made us believe in that core to begin with.

Done Deal?

2009-02-17T11:04:00.001-08:00

According to Darnell Mayberry at The Oklahoman, the Hornets have officially traded Tyson to the Thunder. Looks like he'll be riding the bench tonight at the other end of the court.

I'll wait to give my thoughts until the move is confirmed.

Peace, Tyson.

2009-02-17T10:29:00.001-08:00

It appears the Hornets are closing in on a deal to ship Tyson to the OKC Thunder in exchange for Joe Smith, Chris Wilcox, and (possibly) a draft pick. I hope the talks are just rumors, but ESPN's Marc Stein is reporting that a deal is expected to be complete by the end of the day.

In related news, David West said that he would not favor any trade that sent Tyson away. I guess we'll know by tip off tonight, as the Hornets visit the Thunder for the third meeting of these teams.

Getting past the initial shock of breaking up our core three players, this move would make no sense basketball-wise and would only even come close to being justifiable with regards to finances. And that sucks. I'll have more as I find it.

Sean Marks: All Sexy Like

2009-02-11T08:47:00.000-08:00

So, by now, everyone should be familiar with the Peja topless and hairy-like-animal photo that has found its way around the internet and back again. In the extremely rare case that you haven't seen it, well, you're in luck my friend.

TA-DA! I don't know if the world will ever get a proper explanation for why that picture exists. But don't act like you're not happy it exists. I mean, that's six feet, ten inches, and 229 pounds of pure Serbian sex appeal. And you're all quite welcome. But the reason we're here today is not Peja. No, my friends, we gather together to honor that other tall white foreign dude who puts on the Creole Blue pinstripes night after night.

That's right. Sean Marks (with his late-game heroics against the Timberwolves on Sunday) has his own glamour shot lurking this series of tubes known as the "world wide web." And some savvy member of the New Zealand press recently brought that gem to the forefront of the national news. Well, NZ's national news, anyway. Without further ado, I give you the Kiwi in all his masculine glory...

Mr. Marks, thank you for stepping it up on Sunday to give the team 18 pts, 5 rebs, 1 blk, and 1 ast in a winning effort that remained in doubt until the closing seconds. Thanks to some outstanding play from Sean, Rasual Butler, and Devin Brown, the Hornets were able to take the lead at the end of the game... after trailing for three quarters. Unfortunately, that formula probably won't work tonight against Boston. So let's hope for some help from our big three, all of which could possibly return to the lineup to take on the defending champs in their only visit to the New Orleans Arena.

Chris Paul Is Apparently Awesome

2009-01-28T07:25:00.000-08:00

If you haven't heard of Dave Berri, please check out his amazing blog which houses his ongoing research, the grounds of which were firmly laid in his fantastic book, The Wages of Wins. For those of you who follow basketball and feebly attempt to make heads or tails out of statistical significance (one of my favorite pastimes), Dave is a godsend who always has a very interesting take on the world of sports.

Similar to other more experimental statisticians like Dean Oliver and John Hollinger, Berri has devised his own method of determining player value. His is known as "wins produced." I couldn't find a breakdown of the stat online, but the basic premise is that by applying a certain juju to the statistics of any NBA player, Berri computes the amount of wins that said player will produce. He often presents the statistic as a wins per 48 minutes (WP48). For the purposes of comparison, an average NBA player posts a .100 WPA.

Interestingly enough (though certainly not surprising), CP3 ranks among the highest in the league when it comes to wins produced. In fact, in Berri's recent midseason analysis of the Hornets, he details just how special Paul and his contributions truly are to this team:

From Table One we see that Paul - after 41 games in 2008-09 - has already produced 15.9 wins. In 2007-08, only ten players produced more wins for the entire season (and one of these was Paul). If Paul continues at this pace in 2008-09 he will finish with 31.8 Wins Produced. And if he eclipses the 30 win mark he will be first player to do this since Kevin Garnett (30.7 wins) did this in 2002-03.

Not surprisingly, Berri attributes the Hornets' general struggles to the lack of rebounding by both West and Chandler. As suggested above, Paul's production has actually increased, so if West and Chandler see a return to form over the second half of the season the Hornets could be looking at a true return (or entry?) into the NBA's elite. Here's to hoping.

Additionally, Berri takes the time to compare Paul to another great point guard:

Chris Paul in 2008-09 compares favorably to Magic Johnson. And that is a point I would emphasize. Chris Paul is developing into one of the all-time great players in NBA history. It’s not a stretch to start thinking of him in terms of players like Magic, MJ, and Bird. Yes, Paul is that good.

Quite a statement, indeed. True, us Hornets' fans have been hawking this point for quite some time, but it's nice to see other folks recognizing what's lying in plain sight.

Who knows, perhaps a rejuvenated front-court and a strong second half will put the Hornets back on top in the West. If not, though, we can always rest easy knowing that our insanely awesome point guard will not rest until he has reached that zenith. And the scary part is that he might just be good enough to do it all by himself.

***

In case you have any interest, check out Berri's midseason reports for the remaining 29 teams, and be sure to check the blog next week as he's promised a league-wide analysis for the halfway point.

In case you missed it, At the Hive did a Hornets-themed interview with Berri before the season.

And while we're shouting out to cool stuff on the interwebs, be sure to swing by Hornets 24/7 for a cool article about the Hornet's shot charts through the halfway point.

Peace out.

Celebrating our 100th

2008-12-23T08:41:00.000-08:00

Hometown Hornets is celebrating it's 100th post with a look back on all the great stuff we've done in the past 422 days.

That's right. I started this blog on a wonderful Friday evening in October of 2007, and in that first post I boldly predicted that we would finish the 07-08 season third in the Southwest division, giving us a 7 seed in the playoffs. Who knew that a short 99 posts later, we'd have our eye on the prize, accepting anything less than a 2 seed as a disappointment. That's some crazy progress. Blame it on our crazy(good) point guard.

At any rate, to commemorate HH's rise to mildly amusing and mostly irrelevant, I've put together a look back at some of our more memorable posts:

1. J.A. Freakin' Adande
Here's an angry email I wrote to J.A. Adande after he suggested that the Hornets should be moved before the OKC Kevin Durants. What a dummy.

2. And the Lord Said to Abraham, "Let them rule the Power Rankings"
This post was a long-winded reaction to the Hornets topping the Power Rankings for the first time ever (to my knowledge at least).

3. Holy Crap! All-Stars Everywhere, Part 1, Part 2, & Part 3
Part 1 recaps the Rookie/Sophomore game and the time I met the Big O, Part 2 recaps the actual All-Star game, and Part 3 just has a bunch of cool pics.

4. Trade Deadline and the Return of J. Kidd to the Wild West
Hey, remember that time that Mark Cuban traded for Jason Kidd like that was a solution to his team's woes? And remember when he made his debut? Against us? And then we made him look stupid? And CP almost got a triple double with points, assists, and steals? Yeah, that was awesome.

5. Highlights from the Atlanta Beatdown
The Atlanta game last year was full of hi jinx that would have really sucked had we lost. But we beat them into a pulp, so it was instead it was awesome. Check out this post for video highlights.

6. FANtastic FANale
Hey, remember that time I won Mike James' shoes?

7. Peace Dallas: Round 1 Recap
Hey, remember that time when people didn't take us too seriously in the playoffs?

8. The Recap: a Glorious Season comes to an End
I could re-read this one all day. Best post I ever did.

9. The Live Draft Blog
Have we ever looked like we knew less about basketball?

10. Sonic Doom
Hey, remember that sad day when the Sonics pulled out of Seattle? We were there. And we feel you Seattle fans. We feel you.

11. Hornets and Lots of Other Bugs
Curry had the brilliant idea for the Hornets to partner with the new Audubon Insectarium in town... and then he made it happen.

12. World Domination (a la Chris Paul)
Hey, remember that time CP was a gold medal?

Can't wait for the day I can say, "Hey remember that time CP won a ring?" Get ready. It's coming.

Happy 100th everyone! Thanks for reading.

There is a God

2009-01-22T17:58:00.000-08:00

The Hornets just sent out a press release announcing that our very own Chris Paul has been voted in as a starter for the 2009 NBA All-Star Game.

Congratulations to CP3 who certainly deserves the starting nod. It would've been a shame for the best point guard in the NBA to come off the bench in Phoenix. Here's to many more years with him as the starting point guard in the West.

Woooooooooooooooo!

NBA Heat Maps

2009-01-20T17:22:00.000-08:00

The boys down at BDL linked to a great site the other day called Obsessionism. It's not entirely devoted to basketball, but one particular article was quite intriguing: a feature entitled 2009 NBA Heat Maps

At first glance, the group of them looks a little like a strange tribute to the old Houston Astros or Denver Nuggets logo. But upon closer inspection, we see that they are more than just quirky eye candy. I'll quote them, so you get the whole picture:

Each color is a point range that the team won or lost by in that year. Green to Red bars are wins. Blues are losses... The key [on the right] shows the average share of games won and lost by each 3 point range over the last 5 years of the NBA.

So, with that in mind, we can see at a glance which teams have a history of winning (lots of green and red) and which teams are typically on the losing side (lots of blue). The Knicks (top) and the Spurs (bottom) are the most extreme examples of a good v. bad franchise. Similarly, you can also see which teams are trending up (see: Celtics, Boston), trending down (see: Kings, Sacramento), or are just totally unpredictable (see: Bulls, Chicago). All in all, it's an interesting way to visualize the winning tendencies of teams. Or maybe I'm just totally geeking out since I'm a graphic designer.

Finally, we come to the Hornets map. And for this one, I'll let you make your own extrapolations... enjoy:

Peace out.

Why Not? pt. 2

2009-01-13T15:59:00.000-08:00

Yeah, you're gonna want to watch this (picked it up over at NOLA.com)

New NBA Chris Paul commercial

Thoughts on All-Star Game Voting

2009-01-10T08:14:00.000-08:00

The Times Picayune posted a video report with interviews from Byron Scott, Tyson Chandler, and David West. The paper asked them what they thought about Chris Paul being only the third vote getter for Western Conference guards, behind Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady (whom I won't even dignify with a link).

Listen up, NBA. You really need to change your system in the very near future. Turns out many of your fans *cough*CHINA*cough* don't know much about basketball.

Video: New Orleans Hornets react to All Star Voting

David West: Self-Made Star

2008-12-30T13:56:00.001-08:00

The other day, my friend and I were discussing NBA stardom. The conversation naturally moved to the Hornets, and he argued that David West would be nothing without Chris Paul. Having watched D-West closely since his rookie year in 2003-04 (the first year I lived in New Orleans... and second year the team was here), I felt the need to defend a man that I've witnessed develop into an NBA star. Not a superstar. Not widely regarded outside of sports circles. But a legitimate star, nonetheless.

I can vividly remember a Hornets game I attended in 2003. It was Friday, November 21. My girlfriend (at the time) was in town for her birthday. And, bless her heart, she was kind enough to spend that evening at the New Orleans Arena. The Hornets were playing the Pacers. The winner of that game would go on to have the best record in the Eastern Conference. This was one season before the brawl at The Palace... this was when Jermaine O'Neal still mattered, before Ron Artest went psycho on the world, and while Reggie Miller was heading toward retirement. The game was close throughout -- especially the 4th quarter. With fewer than 30 seconds to go, the Hornets were leading by one point (75-74) when Reggie Miller was fouled and (obviously) hit both free throws. At the other end, Tim Floyd ran a play to get Baron Davis (who was shooting out of his mind that game... 7/10 on threes) an open shot. It didn't go in, and the Hornets were forced to foul. Luckily, O'Neal missed both free throws and gave the team one last chance with a little over a second left. With a timeout, the Hornets advanced the ball to halfcourt and drew up a play to get the ball beneath the basket for a quick layup. David West got the ball right under the basket. He tossed it up and missed as time expired. I was in the lower bowl on the opposite end of the court and remember watching him try to bat in the offensive rebound, but the clock had already run out. That is one of my most lasting memories of David West's rookie season.

And it's amazing to see how far he's come since that game. He had a solid showing in the Hornets' first-round playoff series against the Heat that year. But he was injured for 52 games the next season, so I still considered him the young backup to PJ Brown in 05-06 when it was announced that our starting center -- an All Star two seasons before -- was traded away, forcing PJ to shift over to that role and bringing West into the starting lineup. At the time, I thought the move was crazy (Jamaal Magloire for Desmond Mason leaving us with a starting frontcourt of out-of-position PJ and inexperienced West). But that was the year that D-West started to come into his own. True, the beginning of West's rise to stardom corresponded with Chris Paul's first year in the league. But don't think that West is nothing without Paul. West has an array of post moves and can nail baseline jumpers in his sleep. He is a midrange magician. In that 05-06 season, West hit three last-second game-winning jumpers (vs Hou, vs Mil, vs Was). Only one of them was assisted by CP. Obviously, his game benefits greatly from playing with Chris Paul. But 1) whose wouldn't? and 2) he's much more than just a catch-and-shoot forward.

West has always been a smart on-the-ball defender, averaging only 2.5 fouls per game over his career. He's become a solid off-the-ball defender, averaging 1.2 blocks per game over this season and last. And you can't ignore his rebounding. It's taken a dip this season, but looking at 06-07 and 07-08, you can see he was corralling 2.4 offensive boards per game (8.1 and 8.9 overall, respectively, in those seasons). Getting back to that "catch and shoot" notion, he's making 47.8% of his shots this season (which is incredibly good when you consider how many of those shots have been more than 15 feet away from the basket. And his free throw percentage this season (89.6%) ranks second among all power forwards in the league.

As admitted earlier, CP has made West ... and Chandler and Peja and Mo-Pete and Posey and Rasual Butler and everyone around him better. That's to be expected when playing with a kid on the path to being one of the greatest players in the history of the sport. Chris Paul will be mentioned alongside Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, and Oscar Robertson. He's not just a superstar; he's a legend in the making. And right now that superstar is playing with a star. A star who, two nights ago, hit another game winner. Against the Indiana Pacers. Not too bad for a kid who botched a crucial lay up when he first came into the league. He might've taken a while to reach this status, but David West is an NBA star. Make no mistake about it.

Dear Marc Stein...

2008-12-20T18:42:00.000-08:00

I read Stein's article in this weekend's dime in which he handed out awards for the first trimester of the current season.

For the most part his arguments are fairly reasonable, but I had a few qualms with his Western Conference MVP selection (I bet you can't guess where this is going). Marc donned this distinguished honor to none other than Chauncy Billups. Let that sink in. Chauncy. Billups. Granted, he's been great in Denver, but... really?

So, being the good fan that I am, I wrote Marc a very nice letter of dissent. But since he's probably not going to respond to me (so far, no ESPN columnist has), I thought I would share my thoughts before they melt into the ether. Enjoy:

Dear Marc Stein,

Chauncy Billups? Really?

Ok so Billups, who is a very good point guard no doubt, transitions from a team with an identity crisis to an under-achieving team that's 1- 3. Under Billups, the 1-3 teams improves to 17-7 (which means they're 16-4 during his tenure). While that record is indeed Impressive, I think there's a bit of fallacy to your logic that the addition of Billups is the sole reason for the under-achievers' newfound success (and therefore deserving of the title "Western Conference MVP for the first trimester). I actually believe that their winning has more to do with the player who is no longer with them rather than his replacement.

Allow me to elaborate. With the exception of a few seasons, Allen Iverson has been one of the least efficient "stars" in a league that typically over values points. So Denver, under the impression that Iverson is a star/franchise player, adds him to their roster only to find out that two players who are very good at creating shots for themselves (but not their teammates) does not make for a championship bound team. It'll get you to the playoffs, but that's about it.

So after Denver traded an inefficient play-maker for an efficient one, how can we be so shocked that they are doing so much better in their current configuration? Billups is a player who is above average in efficiency and wins produced whereas Iverson is not (see Dave Berri for more). If you replace incompetence with competence on any sports team, a change for the better is likely. Sure, the 16-4 record with Billups at the helm is pretty impressive, but he certainly did not accomplish that feat on his own.

In terms of Tim Duncan... well, I'm a little dumbfounded by your logic:

Duncan merely hoisted the Spurs to a 2-5 start and prevented the rest of the West's contenders from gaining some real distance when they had the chance.

Right. So without any help from Tony and Manu, good old Timmy kept the Spurs alive by scraping 2 wins together. There's your MVP, folks. Two Win Timmy. Even Garnett managed better than that when he was surrounded by trash in Minny.

So who should be the first Trimester's MVP? Why, Chris Paul of course.

Consider this: Though the team's roster is mostly the same from last year's season, the production from the team's role players has decreased significantly. Paul has had to pick up the slack for Peja and Tyson, both of whom are under-performing given last year's statistics, not to mention the team really has no 2 guard worth starting. Also, due to Mike Jame's complete incompetence at all things basketball, Paul has been forced (though he would never use that word) to play an obscene amount of minutes just to keep the Hornets in contention. And he's done a hell of a job as the Hornet's current record is 15-7 which is good for the second lowest loss total in the West (behind Kobe and company).

But let's get a little more specific and bust out some numbers. For starters, Chris began the season by breaking the big O's record for most consecutive games with 20-10 (7). Since then, he's added 6 more 20-10 performances along with a night 15-15 while going perfect from the field and the stripe. Need more proof? Check out his season per game averages:

PTS: 19.7
REB: 5.4
AST: 11.9
STL: 2.8
TS%: 62.0
AST%: 57.4
STL%: 4.1
PER: 30.56

And here are Billups' numbers:

PTS: 17.7
REB: 2.5
AST: 6.9
STL: 1.4
TS%: 59.0
AST%: 32.7
STL%: 2.0
PER: 21.20

Do the math, Mark. It's painfully obvious that Chris has meant more to the success of his franchise than any other player in the Western Conference and is a much more deserving candidate than a competent point who's now playing for a team that hasn't had one for at least 2 solid seasons.

Thank you for your time.

My brilliant research was made possible by the geniuses at Basketball Reference in case anyone wants to pursue their own course of debunking ESPN analysts.

Peace.

Highlights from the Atlanta Beatdown

2008-03-07T07:21:00.000-08:00

For those of who were salivating over my recent post, but upset that you couldn't find a highlight real... the search is over. NBA TV's Top 10 from Wednesday featured Tyson's block at number 7 and JuJu's putback dunk at number 4. Oh, and Carl Landry's dunk on Ike Diogu is something like 8 kinds of sick. Talk about a statement. Enjoy.

Also, we have a very poor quality video of The New Orleans Globetrotters (poor is an understatement; these guys filmed their television). Turns out Jannero is pretty good at this stuff. Look for Ryan Bowen's reaction when he's invited to join the show.

Tune in this weekend for coverage of the Hornet's hosting the Nets. Power to people.